Phoenix Real Estate 2026 vs. 2021: What Changed

By Arizona Home Group

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If you bought or sold a home in Phoenix back in 2021, you probably remember just how wild that market was. Multiple offers, bidding wars, homes selling well over asking price. It was a completely different world than the one we’re in today. So let’s fast-forward five years, compare 2026 to 2021, and talk about what the shift actually means if you’re thinking about buying or selling here in the Valley.

The market is healthier than last year. Let’s start with some good news. In August, single-family home sales were up about 3% from last year, and we’re seeing inventory and contract activity improve as well. It’s a real sign of a steadier, more functional market. But it’s worth putting that progress in perspective, because a healthier market isn’t the same as a red-hot one.

Three in four homes sell below asking. Here’s the number that grounds everything. In August, about 75% of single-family homes sold for less than the seller’s original asking price. That’s almost identical to last year, when it was 76%. So, three out of every four sellers are still coming down from their original listing price. This is very much a market that rewards getting the price right, not one that bails out an ambitious number. If you want the fuller local picture, our Phoenix market update digs into the trends behind these figures.

2021 was a completely different world. Now rewind to August of 2021. Mortgage rates were incredibly low, inventory was almost non-existent, and buyers were competing like crazy. Here’s the number that really tells the story: back then, 63% of homes sold above their original asking price. Compare that to today, when only 12% are selling above asking. That’s a dramatic change in just five years, and it explains why the strategies that worked in 2021 simply don’t translate to the market we’re in now.

The affordable range stays competitive. There’s something interesting hiding inside that 12%. About 40% of the homes still selling above asking were priced under $400,000. That tells us the more affordable part of our market can still be genuinely competitive. When a good home comes on at the right price, buyers are always paying attention, so this isn’t a market where buyers can assume every seller will bend.

Sellers, pricing is everything now. If you’re selling, this is the heart of the message. You can still get a great price for your home, but pricing it correctly from the beginning matters more than ever. This isn’t the market where you start high and plan to reduce later. Buyers have choices today, and if your home is overpriced, they may not even make an offer; they’ll just move on to the next one. With mortgage rates still in the high 6% range, buyers are very conscious of affordability and their monthly payment, so your price, presentation, and marketing all have to work together from day one. Knowing how to price your Phoenix home to sell is what separates a smooth sale from a stale listing.

Buyers, you have real negotiating room. There’s good news on the other side too. When three out of every four homes are selling below their original asking price, there’s room to negotiate, and that could show up as price, closing costs, repairs, or concessions at closing. Just don’t assume every seller will negotiate, especially under $400,000. The best homes in the best locations at the right price will still get attention, so you may still need to move quickly when the right one shows up. If you’ve been on the fence, it’s worth understanding why waiting to buy might cost you more.

Here’s the big takeaway. The Phoenix market is healthier than it was a year ago, but we’re nowhere near the frenzy of 2021, and honestly, that’s probably a good thing. We’re getting back to a more balanced market with real opportunities for both buyers and sellers. And remember, real estate is local, so what’s happening across Phoenix as a whole may look completely different from your neighborhood or your price range. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, reach out to us at the Arizona Home Group. Call or text us at (602) 571-3730, email us at john@arizonahomegroup.com, or visit ahgnationasks.com. We’ll help you understand what’s happening in your part of the Valley and what it means for your next home.